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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model