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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 2

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP