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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:55) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to ARI 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP