Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 48 for 21 yards (4-S.Koch). BAL-31-B.Trawick was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-54-C.Marsh, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model