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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 15

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.13 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model