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DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DEN
50.0%
SF
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Nick Mullens (SF) +0.110 vs Case Keenum (DEN) -0.017 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
SF 22
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DEN

Shaquil Barrett LB Out Hip
Tramaine Brock CB Out Ribs
Chris Harris CB Out Fibula
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Knee

SF

Matt Breida RB Out Ankle
Pierre Garcon WR Out Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Out Shoulder
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
SF 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:28 FG SF (10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DEN 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 13:04 FG SF (13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DEN 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 10:00 TD SF (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC DEN 0 – SF 12
  • Q2 00:12 TD SF (:12) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-41-I.Yiadom was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DEN 0 – SF 19
  • Q3 06:07 TD DEN (6:07) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – SF 20
  • Q4 03:57 TD DEN (3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC DEN 13 – SF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:27) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to SF 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-R.James MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 24. 13-R.James to SF 24 for no gain (35-D.Thomas). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 54%

    (4:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-40-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:19) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to SF 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 19 for 8 yards.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%

    (10:09) 3-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to SF 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-89-B.Parker.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to DEN 21, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:14) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to SF 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:04) 3-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to SF 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 81-T.Taylor to SF 44 for 18 yards (38-S.Thomas).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%

    (8:40) 32-A.Janovich up the middle to SF 30 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead; 93-D.Jones).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 89%

    (6:32) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 3 for 19 yards. Caught at SF 5. 2-YAC

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%

    (2:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-40-C.Holba. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 8 for no gain (33-T.Moore, 26-G.Mabin). Penalty on DEN-43-J.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:48) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay right end pushed ob at DEN 46 for 2 yards (54-C.Marsh).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 89%

    (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-P.Lindsay to SF 21 for 1 yard (36-M.Harris). Caught at SF 21; 0 YAC

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to DEN 31, Center-40-C.Holba. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 31 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (5:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 15 for 9 yards. SF-33-T.Moore was injured during the play. Caught at SF 15; 0 YAC

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (4:24) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to SF 3 for 3 yards (36-M.Harris).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC