4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 33

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 32-A.Janovich up the middle to SF 30 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead; 93-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model