Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(13:04) 3-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to SF 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 81-T.Taylor to SF 44 for 18 yards (38-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.93 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model