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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 22

Denver Broncos 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:42) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-P.Lindsay to SF 21 for 1 yard (36-M.Harris). Caught at SF 21; 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model