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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 56

Denver Broncos 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:48) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay right end pushed ob at DEN 46 for 2 yards (54-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model