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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to DEN 31, Center-40-C.Holba. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 31 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP