4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model