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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model