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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 24

Denver Broncos 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 15 for 9 yards. SF-33-T.Moore was injured during the play. Caught at SF 15; 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP