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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-40-C.Holba. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 8 for no gain (33-T.Moore, 26-G.Mabin). Penalty on DEN-43-J.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model