Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to SF 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-R.James MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 24. 13-R.James to SF 24 for no gain (35-D.Thomas). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model