Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Denver Broncos 0

(1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to DEN 21, Center-40-C.Holba, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model