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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model