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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 5.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CAR
32.8%
PHI
67.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 19 mph
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than CAR
  • PHI defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): +0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CAR

Andre Smith LB Out Hamstring

PHI

D.J. Alexander LB Out Quadricep
Nathan Gerry LB Out Ankle
Corey Graham S Out Hamstring
Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 21
–
PHI 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:43 TD PHI (11:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 06:40 FG PHI (6:40) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. CAR 0 – PHI 10
  • Q3 00:44 TD PHI (:44) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – PHI 16
  • Q4 10:48 TD CAR (10:48) (Shotgun) 10-C.Samuel right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – PHI 17
  • Q4 04:13 TD CAR (4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 17-D.Funchess for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 12 – PHI 17
  • Q4 01:26 TD CAR (1:26) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – PHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 3 yards (18-S.Gibson).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 31%

    (11:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (7:05) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CAR 44 for 1 yard (93-K.Love).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at CAR 25 for 14 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (2:50) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-D.Carter to PHI 26 for 13 yards (42-C.Jones, 18-D.Byrd).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-D.Carter to PHI 12 for 1 yard (10-C.Samuel).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 74%

    (6:40) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 67%

    (2:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 27 yards to PHI 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 20 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 33%

    (10:10) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to PHI 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (1:57) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CAR 1 for 2 yards (59-L.Kuechly).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 22%

    (7:00) 1-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to CAR 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:28) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 31 for 9 yards (37-T.Sullivan).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith to PHI 34 for 35 yards (31-J.Mills) [77-M.Bennett].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 94%

    (:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).