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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 3 yards (18-S.Gibson).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model