Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Carolina Panthers 14

(2:28) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 31 for 9 yards (37-T.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model