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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-D.Carter to PHI 12 for 1 yard (10-C.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP