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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CAR 1 for 2 yards (59-L.Kuechly).

The Three Options

GO +4.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model