4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model