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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at CAR 25 for 14 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.83 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model