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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP