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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.55 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP