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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 27 yards to PHI 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP