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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.15 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP