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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 1-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to CAR 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model