Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-D.Carter to PHI 26 for 13 yards (42-C.Jones, 18-D.Byrd).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.54 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model