Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SEA defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- HOU offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- HOU on 7 more days rest than SEA
- HOU defense: -0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
HOU
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 32 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:47 TD HOU (12:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 15-W.Fuller V for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – SEA 0
- Q1 10:21 TD SEA (10:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas at SEA 22. 29-E.Thomas for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – SEA 6
- Q1 06:12 TD HOU (6:12) (No Huddle) 26-L.Miller right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – SEA 7
- Q1 02:19 TD SEA (2:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – SEA 13
- Q2 09:40 TD HOU (9:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller V for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – SEA 14
- Q2 06:07 TD SEA (6:07) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 21 – SEA 20
- Q3 07:08 FG HOU (7:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 24 – SEA 21
- Q3 04:39 FG SEA (4:39) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. HOU 24 – SEA 24
- Q3 02:27 FG SEA (2:27) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. HOU 24 – SEA 27
- Q4 09:14 TD HOU (9:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Smith]. HOU 30 – SEA 27
- Q4 05:41 TD SEA (5:41) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 31 – SEA 33
- Q4 05:01 TD HOU (5:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-92-N.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 37 – SEA 34
- Q4 00:26 TD SEA (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 38 – SEA 40
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(11:42) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 44 for 11 yards (38-T.Madden).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:55) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for -1 yards (22-J.Todman). PENALTY on HOU-14-C.Thompson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 28.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(14:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to HOU 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-W.Fuller V pushed ob at HOU 26 for 6 yards (30-B.McDougald). PENALTY on HOU-40-M.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 34%
(11:34) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to SEA 46 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark; 31-K.Chancellor).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for no gain (50-B.Heeney; 23-K.Drummond). PENALTY on SEA-57-M.Wilhoite, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 31.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to HOU 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to HOU 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-W.Fuller V ran ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (69-T.Ott).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(7:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(4:39) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(2:27) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(14:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to SEA 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-22-J.Todman.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 47 yards to HOU 39, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Penalty on HOU-50-B.Heeney, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 59%
(1:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 11 yards (22-J.Todman).