Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 47 yards to HOU 39, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Penalty on HOU-50-B.Heeney, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.27 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model