Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 75

Houston Texans 14 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(:55) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for -1 yards (22-J.Todman). PENALTY on HOU-14-C.Thompson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.83 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model