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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to HOU 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model