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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to HOU 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-W.Fuller V pushed ob at HOU 26 for 6 yards (30-B.McDougald). PENALTY on HOU-40-M.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model