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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 56

Houston Texans 21 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -1.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model