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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.79 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP