Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 82

Houston Texans 21 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for no gain (50-B.Heeney; 23-K.Drummond). PENALTY on SEA-57-M.Wilhoite, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.47 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model