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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to HOU 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-W.Fuller V ran ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (69-T.Ott).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model