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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 48

Houston Texans 14 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to SEA 46 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark; 31-K.Chancellor).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.59 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -3.50 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.53 EP
PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model