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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 72

Houston Texans 38 – Seattle Seahawks 34

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 11 yards (22-J.Todman).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.40 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP