Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 64

Houston Texans 24 – Seattle Seahawks 27

(14:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to SEA 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-22-J.Todman.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model