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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 13

Houston Texans 21 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model