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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
61.3%
NYJ
38.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.045 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.263 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 24
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ATL

Duke Riley LB Out Knee
Jordan Tripp LB Out Concussion

NYJ

Jordan Leggett TE Out Knee
Brandon Shell T Out Neck
Buster Skrine CB Out Concussion
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 25
–
NYJ 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:38 TD NYJ (10:38) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 83-E.Tomlinson for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 05:09 TD ATL (5:09) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 14:07 FG NYJ (14:07) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. ATL 7 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 08:09 FG ATL (8:09) 3-M.Bryant 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 02:31 TD NYJ (2:31) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – NYJ 16
  • Q2 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 13 – NYJ 17
  • Q3 05:16 FG ATL (5:16) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 16 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 12:31 TD ATL (12:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 22 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 08:46 FG NYJ (8:46) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. ATL 22 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 05:22 FG ATL (5:22) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 25 – NYJ 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%

    (8:20) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 23%

    (1:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 6 for -2 yards (23-T.Brooks).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (14:07) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (8:09) 3-M.Bryant 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:15) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to ATL 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 6. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 6 for no gain (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to ATL 49, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Kerley to ATL 43 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 81%

    (:03) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to NYJ 34, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to ATL 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-30-R.Nelson.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to ATL 47, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 25%

    (7:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 91%

    (5:16) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%

    (14:21) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (8:46) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to NYJ 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at NYJ 13. 36-K.Ishmael to NYJ 13 for no gain (16-C.Hansen).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (5:22) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:54) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to ATL 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-A.Roberts for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on ATL-20-S.Neasman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 36%

    (1:16) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to NYJ 4, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins to NYJ 38 for 11 yards (22-K.Neal).