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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 25 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to NYJ 4, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -1.45 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP