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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 28

New York Jets 17 – Atlanta Falcons 22

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model