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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to NYJ 34, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.03 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP