4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP