Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 94

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Jets 10

(5:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to ATL 49, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Kerley to ATL 43 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.14 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 94, worth -5.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model